The Beagle Log, 3 January 2008 -- American Politics

Greetings to a New Year

I hope 2008 finds you all in good spirits and ready for an exciting year.

This year has the potential to be an interesting year. We have Putin making a power grab in Russia, Pakistan is in turmoil, Iran and Korea continue to bluff the world with respect to their nuclear intentions, the establishment of a stable Iraqi government remains a goal, and Afghanistan is becoming more volatile. There are new governments in France, Australia, and England. And here in America we are getting ready for the ’08 Presidential election.

If I understand it right, in a Parliamentarian form of government the leader of the majority party or coalition becomes the Prime Minster. In the US, the President is elected independent of the party having the majority. It is not uncommon to find a President in the minority party. Recent Presidents who have been in this position include Bush the Elder, Ragan, and Eisenhower. Bush the Younger and Clinton had portions of there Presidency where they were of the minority party. In fact, there are benefits to this arrangement. It forces more scrutiny on proposed legislation and budgets.

Without getting into issues or personalities here is a quick primer on the American Presidential election process.

American Presidential elections are a three-step process. We are now entering our primaries. This is the process whereby the parties select their Presidential nominees. Primaries this year have been moved forward and the time compressed. The Iowa caucuses are being held on January 3^rd, the New Hampshire primary a week later, and super Tuesday in early February. I believe the entire primary process will be over in about 6 weeks. So, by the end of February we will know who the nominees are and then will be “blessed” with their presidential campaigning until the first Tuesday in November when general elections are held. (If by chance there is a meltdown of one or more candidates, a party’s nominee may not be made until the party convention, which will be sometime this spring.)

The general election in November is the 2^nd step. Not only will we be voting for president, but also congressional members, and for local officials.

The 3^rd step is the Electoral College. It is the Electoral College who actually elects the President. The general election elects the State's Electors. The Electoral College is not understood by many. This process has the potential to award the presidency to the person with the lesser number of votes. This happened in 2000 with George Bush and Al Gore. (You may have heard some say that George stole the election.) This was not the first time this outcome occurred. If you recall from an earlier Beagle Post I mentioned State Rights. The Electoral College process helps protect State Rights by making it more difficult for large States to “steamroll” smaller States. If the Presidential elections were based on popular vote, a few states could control the outcome. This process is what has led to the categorizing of States as red (republican) or blue (democrat). As byzantine as this system sounds, it works.

If you have any interest in American presidential politics, I recommend the following web site http://www.realclearpolitics.com/. It is just one of many but I believe it tries to maintain neutral coverage to the extent that that is possible.

This is probably more than you ever wanted to know about American politics but I find it an interesting process to watch.

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Don

Thanks for that info Don. (though sometimes I find it hard enough understanding our own British system!)

And don't forget everyone - that 2008 is a big year for Liverpool and North West England!!

Liverpool European Capital of Culture 2008

alsorts of good stuff going on in the fab multi-cultural city this year, not only related to this area - but including exhibitions about historical events that have affected not only Europe, but the world.

Keep an eye on Gillian's Boards for news of events........
>> LIVERPOOL & LANCASHIRE SOUTH-WEST >>

See y'all later
Carole cheers

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Carole, Smith Project/Smith Chat Admin
Nothing is too small to know, and nothing too big to attempt (William Van Horne)

Happy New Year Everyone!

My special wish is for a peaceful year but, alas, I fear that is a forlorn hope.

My husband and I, one of our sons and 4 grandchildren had a special day out yesterday. We went to Liverpool, European Capital of Culture, where we enjoyed a very interesting day.

First we went to the Magical History Tour in the Maritime Museum. I found the very early history of what would later become Liverpool of greatest interest and wish the curator had allowed even more space for this. What followed was interesting and well presented but also less of a mystery I would say! I was surprised to learn that in the Ice Age a wooly mammoth would have been able to trek across the glacier from Liverpool to The Isle of Man when it wanted a change of hunting ground! The exhibition is well worth a visit, particularly, to those with an interest in Liverpool.

Index to 'History' links

Later we visited the International Slavery Museum which seems to tug at the heart strings of all who spend time there. The visit was a salutary experience. The museum quickly draws attention to the horrors which humans inflict upon one another. Horrors which continue in one form or another today. The exhibition also emphasizes that the dreadful consequences of Slavery continue today because people suffer inequality in our communities.

In one part of the museum it is possible to sit alone in an area surrounded by the sights and sounds of suffering humanity below decks on a slaving vessel. The constant noise as the vessel creaks and churns its way through the water might have been enough to send some people mad. On top of that the stench and the perpetual moaning of people in fetters, who were nauseus, ill, or injured from illtreatment, must have been soul destroying.

Please visit the museum if you can. If possible, take some young people and give them a fresh opportunity to consider how to behave towards their fellows.

Yesterday the Mersey was a murky gunmetal grey and the sky a slightly lighter shade of the same! There was a sharp biting east wind that tore at our clothes and we were thankful to climb aboard our modern transport to travel home!

Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Jean,

In another post you said:

Hi Don!
I think your election is going to be very interesting! History could be in the making as they say!

In this country I think too much is made of elections by the media and the public become lethargic because they end up not believing anything anyone says. I don't know what the answer is.
cheers

Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Tuesday’s outcomes were most interesting. McCain’s (R) win was somewhat expected although Romney (R) kept it a close race. The big surprise was Clinton’s (D) win. Pollsters had Obama (D) winning with a double-digit lead. Pundits are now trying to figure out what happened.

Between now and February 5^th there are 5 states holding primaries. The two of consequence are South Carolina on Jan 19th for republicans, Jan 29th for the democrats and Florida on for the republicans on the 29th. These primaries will help position the candidates for Supper Tuesday on February 5^th when 23 states hold primaries. These will include major states like California, New York and Illinois.

Early primaries in small states help candidates define their message and determine depth of voter support. Several candidates have pulled-the-plug on their run, reducing the field to the more prominent candidates, but not necessarily the more qualified. Money, media coverage, and popular support seem to be the driving factors.

Next post will be just prior to Supper Tuesday. Your questions are welcome.
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Don

As the American presidential primaries approach “Supper Tuesday” the political landscape has seen dramatic changes. Six months ago Rudy Giuliani was the prospective republican candidate and Hillary Clinton was the democrats’. Today that is not the case. Since my last update, primaries have been held in Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, and Florida. The net effect was the propulsion of Barack Obama into a tight race with Hillary Clinton on the democrat’s side and tightens of the race between Mitt Romney and John McCain on the republican’s side. Pundits are giving Clinton and McCain a slight edge in their races but many think Obama might have a good chance to beat Clinton. Romney has a more challenging race.

Rudy Giuliani placed all his eggs in the Florida race. He had a poor 3^rd place showing and has withdrawn from the contest and is throwing his support to McCain. This will probably enhance McCain’s ability to win remaining primaries. The other republican contender (not counting Ron Paul) is Mike Huckabee. Huckabee won the Iowa caucus but appears to be hanging on to only a small following. I am guessing he will drop out next week after Super Tuesday

On the democrat’s side the field is down to two contenders - Obama and Clinton. John Edwards pulled the plug on his run. I think the general feeling is that his departure will be of minimal benefit to either of the remaining two candidates. This race is historic in that the democrat party will nominate either an African-American or a woman and either having a respectable chance of winning the Presidency.

Given the nature of the primaries, the republican nominee may be determined this coming Tuesday. Most of the major states (those having a large number of delegates) participating in Super Tuesday have a winner take all election. That is not the case for the democrat contest. Democrat primaries allocate delegates based on votes received. The democrat’s nominee will most likely not be determined until later this year and possibly not until the Democrat Convention in late August. One other twist, several of the states have “closed” primaries. This means only voters registered republicans or democrats can vote, no independents, and they can only vote in their party’s primary. This may impact McCain given he has benefited from crossover voters in earlier primaries which were “open” primaries

Virginia’s primaries will be held on 12 February. Virginia has open primaries which allow voters to vote in either primary but not both (note: democrat and republican primaries are concurrent). This means I can vote for either a democrat or republican contender. So if there is an apparent republican nominee, I can vote for one of the democrat candidates.

One of the weaknesses of our primary system is that voters voting in the later primaries often have only a limited chance to influence their party’s selection. The strength of this system is that it gives the public a chance to watch and develop opinions as candidates navigate the many contests, each having a unique focus. Supper Tuesday will have 24 states in play. Given the time available candidates are forced to select the states they will actively campaign in. At best, they can cover only halve. In remaining states candidates must rely on the media – no hands on campaigning.

I’ll report back next week after “Supper Tuesday”. In the mean time the following web sites provide ongoing election information for those who would like more details.

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/
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Don

The lay of the land has dramatically shifted since last week. “Super Tuesday” occurred earlier this week. I provided a brief over view of the status of the candidates. Now that the votes are counted from the 24 primaries, we find Clinton and Obama in a neck-to-neck race. Obama’s momentum is growing and Clinton’s appears to have stalled. On the republican side, McCain appears to be the republican’s nominee for President. Today, Mitt Romany dropped out of the race. This leaves only McCain who has won most of the primaries and Huckabee who may be angling for the Vice President slot.

There are several primaries remaining, but at this point, they will only have meaning for the democrats, i.e., selection of Clinton or Obama.

I’ll keep you posted as the year progresses.
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Don

Well I did my duty and cast my vote in the primary. I had the choice of voting democrat or republican (Virginia has open primaries - see above), but I won’t be sharing my preference here. The primaries this past Tuesday comprised Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Colombia and are referred to as the Chesapeake Primaries.

The outcome was noteworthy. McCain won the republican primaries, but the race was close with Huckabee maintaining a close second. Since Tuesday, McCain has garnered the endorsements of several influential people. I and most others believe McCain will be the republican candidate this fall. The tone of his campaign is now shifting from a primary campaign to a presidential run.

On the democrat side, Obama had a decisive victory in the Chesapeake Primaries making him the democrat front runner. Clinton is close behind but is very dependent on the Ohio and Texas primaries that will be held in early March. She has to win both by a significant margin.

There remains the question of how “super delegates” will vote and of seating delegates from Florida and Michigan at the Democrat Convention. The Democrat Party barred delegates from these two states when the they moved primaries forward without the Party’s approval. It is expected that this decision will be contested. Given the closeness of the democrat primaries, the outcome of either of these two issues could decide the outcome and may be vigorously challenged by the losing side.

This has been one of the most interesting primary seasons in memory.
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Don

Hi Don!

Thanks for this overview of the American elections. It has been fascinating watching it all from this distance and it looks as if there is probably some excitement still to come. Whilst I can't claim to FULLY understand the process it has certainly become much clearer with the excellent coverage from both yourself and the the media in the UK .

Here's to the next round! cheers

Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Hi Don

Yes I agree with Gillian I don't fully understand the process either, so it's great to have an insider explaining the American system to us.
This year is especially fascinating because of the candidates running. Glad to know that you voted, I believe everyone should vote.

Jean wave

Hiya everyone,

Again, us Brits don not fully understand but I agree with you Jean everyone should vote.
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Maxine
Friendship~
Lots of people want to ride with you in the limo, but what you want is someone who will take the bus with you when the limo breaks down. - Oprah Winfrey

Thursday, 6 March.

Well the dance goes on. The Texas and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday resulting in fascinating returns.

First on the Republican side, John McCain gained enough delegates to make him the Republican nominee. Barring any major blunders on his part this summer, he will be named the nominee at the Republican convention in early September.

It’s not that simple on the Democrat side. Hillary Clinton made a strong comeback taking both Ohio and Texas. While she still lags (but not by much) Barack Obama in both the popular votes and won delegates, she is demonstrating a strong resurgence. It is very probable that neither will win the required number of delegates in the remaining 12 primaries.

Expectations are that there will not be a clear winner by the time of the Democrat Convention in late August. This potentially puts the nomination process into the backroom. Two major pending items are the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates and supper delegates.

The Democrat Party barred delegates from Florida and Michigan when they moved primaries forward without the Party’s approval. Late last year both Clinton and Obama agreed with this. Question now is how are these two important States to be treated? They are important to the Democrats in the general election. A change in rules during the ‘game’ would most likely favor Clinton.

“Super delegates”, appointed by the Party, are free to vote for either candidate based on whom they feel is best for the Party. What is the impact if Obama has the popular vote but super delegates give the nomination to Clinton?

More later.
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Don

Hi Don

American politics are very complicated how do you understand it all and you have to vote again in November.
But it's great to read about it even if I don't quite understand it all.

Thanks
Jean

Hi Don!

It is really, really interesting but the only bit I truly understand is that John McCain seems to be nearly through! However, I understand more this time than ever before so many thanks Don! It is all very exciting too, I just wish I had a vote. Shocked

Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin