The Beagle Log, 3 January 2008 -- American Politics

Gillian, It is a protracted and often a confusing process. It’s sad to say that many here don’t fully understand the process. But that’s democracy.

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Well it is time for an update.

Primaries were held in Pennsylvania Tuesday. Clinton took it by 10 points keeping her in the race. Obama maintains the lead in pledged delegates and depending how one counts (Hillary uses a non-conventional method) the lead in popular votes. There are a half dozen or so remaining primaries, but Indiana and North Carolina on May 6^th are the last two that have any potential for a significant effect. As it stands and as expected by most observers, the super delegates will be forced to make the final decision as to who the Democrat nominee will be. (See above for definition of super delegates). This is a prospect most would prefer to skip since it has potential to burn political bridges.

In the mean time John McCain, the Republican nominee, is campaigning in the lesser visited places and building his base. In non-partisan polls he appears to be developing a small, but not of statistically significance, lead over both Clinton and Obama. Earlier projections (6 months ago) had the republican nominee trailing any democrat nominee by a large margin.

Obama has had a couple setbacks: the Reverend Wright affair, comments about "clinging" to traditional values, and an association with the Weatherman Underground. Hillary has had her problems: dodging snipers in Bosnia, her husband’s comments that kept that controversy alive, and Bill’s injection of race in the South Carolina primary.

I don’t expect much change between now and the end of May; end of the primary season. I believe the Democrat National Committee (DNC) will be pressing for a caucus of super delegates in June with the goal of settling on the nominee. It is important that a nominee be identified in order that he/she counters McCain’s activities over the summer. If selection is put off until the Convention in late August, McCain will enjoy a free run over the summer.

As I’ve said before, this is an interesting election. Contenders are a woman, a black, and the oldest person to run for the Presidency. Traditional wisdom had the Democrats winnings by a wide margin. It now appears to be a real race, not to be determined until the 2^nd Tuesday in November – i.e. Election Day. I have my own projections but will keep those to myself for the time being.

Next update in June if super delegates are convened.
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Don

Again Don, thankyou!

We follow the news out here in Spain as we can receive UK TV and of course have the internet. We can also buy Spanish editions of Eglish newspapers so we do keep up to date. It is very interesting now that we have your 'insider' information to help us to follow these American elections. As you say they are a particularly interesting set of candidates and quite a tough call for the Democrats to select their person for the race.

We look forward to hearing more before too long!

Hasta pronto Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Hi Don

Great to keep up with what's going on in the election.

Thanks

Jean

THE PRIMARIYS ARE FINALLY OVER

It has been a very interesting primary season. The primaries have kept the news services and “talking heads” occupied for the past five months.

It appears Barak Obama will be the Democratic Party’s nominee unless there is a major misstep between now and the convention. The big question now is who will he choose for a running mate (i.e., Vice President). Hillary has indicated an interest. I do not expect Obama to make his choice known now, nor will John McCain announce his running mate at this time. I expect both John McCain and Barak Obama will play this close to the chest until their respective conventions.

There will be a campaign stump speeches over the summer months but no debates between the two presumptive nominees. Activity will pickup in late August as the Democratic convention approaches on 25 August followed by the Republican convention starting on 1 September.

Next posting will be in late August unless there is other noteworthy news.
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Don

Hi Don!

The debate over here now is 'Which one would make the best President from a British point of view?' American politics and your economy especially have a big impact on what happens over here. We shall be paying close attention to what the candidates say from our own point of view, even though we don't have a vote!!

Cheers Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

As you have probably heard on the news, Hillary has abdicated — whoops I mean conceded the race to Obama. This was not a pleasant turn of events for her. After recent statements, she has to show strong support for Obama and be an asset to his presidential campaign if she is to get back into the good graces of the Democratic Party.

Each party now has their presumptive nominee:

--- Republican - John McCain
--- Democrat – Barack Obama

On a scale of Liberal to Conservative – giving a 1 to extreme liberal and a 10 to extreme conservative I would rate the two as follows.

- John McCain a 6
- Barack Obama a 2

For comparison I’d rate Jimmy Carter as 2 and Ronald Reagan as an 8 or maybe a 9.
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Don

What an exciting and interesting election you are having Don!

It always seems a pity to me when someone does not concede swiftly and with a good grace. Perhaps, if they do not, it tells people more about their personality than anything else could have done. After all, success in politics is largely about diplomacy and reading the situation correctly in the first instance...........

A lot more interest and excitement to come methinks!

Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Please let me know if this is more than you want to know about American politics.

As pointed out earlier, it is the number of votes in the “Electoral College” that determines who wins the Presidency. In the 2000 election, Al Gore won the popular vote but George Bush won the Electoral College vote. (See my 1^st posting to this thread.)

Obama and McCain are now focused on winning the Electoral College vote. Therefore, they will be focusing on those states that can be swayed in their direction. The insert below is from today’s Washington Post (Reporting By Dan Balz And Alec Macgillis | GRAPHIC: The Washington Post - June 8, 2008.) States identified as “battleground states” will be where much of their efforts will be directed for the next several months.

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Don

Thanks Don! This will be really useful to refer back to when we get future postings about the election.
Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Don the table is great and certainly helps.
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Maxine
Friendship~
Lots of people want to ride with you in the limo, but what you want is someone who will take the bus with you when the limo breaks down. - Oprah Winfrey

Hi Maxine!

Do I gather that you are back and did you have a lovely time?
Cheers Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Hi Don

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the election.
I watch Fox News on Sky, but it's easy to understand when you can read it.

Jean

Democratic Convention, 25-28 August

Well the first of the two conventions has been held. The Democratic convention was held in Denver, Colorado this week. Barak Obama is now the official nominee for the Democratic Party. This is historic; the first minority to head one of the major political parties. I believe African-Americans comprise about 12% of the population. His acceptance speech delivered on 28 August, the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King’s historic “I have a Dream” speech.

One of the major questions of this political season has been answered – who will Obama select as his running mate. Senator Joe Biden was named as his running mate. Biden is an interesting selection. He has been a Senator from the state of Delaware for three decades. He has extensive foreign policy and defense experience. He is also the 3^rd most liberal sitting Senator and is known for “putting his foot in his mouth” at interesting times. He speaks his mind and will be an active Vice President if the Democrats win the election in November.

McCain named his running mate today - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Timing of this announcement is, I’m sure, intended to dampen some of the lift Obama is expecting in the polls. Gov. Palin is a surprising choice. She may be a brilliant selection. I am waiting to see her first faceoff with Senator Biden.

The Republican convention is scheduled to start on 1 September, this Monday. There may be an unexpected guest, Gustav. Gustav is a hurricane now entering the Gulf of Mexico. It has similar characteristics as that of Katrina and may make landfall near New Orleans on Tuesday. (This is the 3^rd anniversary of the 2005 catastrophe.) If that happens, McCain and others may bail on the convention and go to the Gulf coast. The republicans cannot afford the appearance of partying in Minneapolis as New Orleans suffers a major hurricane. There is real potential that the start of the Republican Convention may be delayed.
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Don

Hi Don
Thanks for that interesting update! We have been watching the news avidly for the last few days and all in all it is proving to be an extremely exciting election from this side of the 'pond'. There have been many twists and turns and your bulletins have increased our understanding of events.

We look forward to the next installment!

Cheers Gillian
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''What will survive of us is love.'' Philip Larkin

Hi Don

Thanks for the above update. Do you know much about Sarah Palin?
Been watching Foxs News on the Election. British politics seems dull compared to America.

Bye Jean